At first glance, it seems Dutch house prices are soaring. In May 2025, home prices were 9.7% higher than in May 2024, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). For ten straight months, the year-on-year increase hovered around or above 10%. The average home now sells for €472,000, which is €26,000 more than a year ago. On paper, that’s impressive. But what happens if you adjust for inflation?
The CBS’s price index shows that home values peaked in July 2022, dipped slightly, and have been climbing again since June 2023. As of May 2025, nominal home prices have risen 11.7% above the 2022 peak. However, when factoring in inflation, the picture changes.
Inflation affects purchasing power. Your money buys less when prices rise across the board. In May 2025, inflation in the Netherlands hit 3.3%, well above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. This means that even if house prices appear higher, the real value of homes may not have increased at the same rate.
Van Bruggen Adviesgroep, a financial advisory firm, adjusted CBS’s data to account for inflation. They created a real house price index alongside the nominal index. In their chart, the blue line shows nominal prices, while the orange line reflects inflation-adjusted values. The real index reveals that, although prices are rising, inflation has kept the real value slightly below the July 2022 peak.
The gap between nominal and real values is shrinking. House prices are currently growing faster than inflation. If this trend continues, real house prices may soon reach a new high. But for now, the market hasn’t quite caught up when inflation is factored in.
Still, not all inflation effects are negative. Rising inflation may hurt your wallet, but it reduces the real weight of long-term debt, such as a mortgage. Consider an interest-only mortgage of €400,000 taken in early 2020. The principal remains unchanged. But with wage growth aligned with inflation, that same €400,000 feels smaller today.
In fact, Van Bruggen calculates that in 2020 euros, the mortgage now equals just €316,328. As a result, homeowners spend a smaller share of their income on monthly payments. This effect improves affordability, especially for those with fixed-rate, interest-only loans.
So, are Dutch house prices really rising? Yes — but Dutch house prices and inflation must be viewed together. The housing market is hot in nominal terms, but its real value is only now catching up to pre-correction peaks. Buyers and homeowners should understand that while headline numbers look strong, the true value of property growth depends on what money can actually buy.
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